My friend Matt and I escaped his vacation home cacophony. The Olde Schoolhouse Cafe in Durango,CO
was our mountain refuge from the kids and wives. Kitschy,cluttered, and laid back with a little bar perfect for ski bums, mountain bikers and wannabes like us. Yeah, we were knocking back a few. That's when we got a sales lesson.
The roll of the dice made it clear. It was Yahtzee time! But not any old Yahtzee, this was drinking Yahtzee with cash on the line. For a buck someone at the bar could try to get Yahtzee (same number on five dice) in two rolls. Winner gets all the money in the pot but is required to buy shots for everyone at the bar, including the bar tender and owner. "Yahtzee baby!!! The dude next to me hit all 4's in two rolls.
As the bartender mixed up some "Surfers on Speed" shots Matt and I wondered how likely we would be to actually deliver the pizza we ordered for our starving families. (Yes, I know this is the second time Pizza has inspired my blog. If you didn't read "Pizza Seals the Deal", shame on you! Click here.) Then my mind drifted to how Yahtzee can help you determine a chances of closing a deal.
How do you evaluate your chances of closing a deal? Gut feeling? Where you are in your internal sales process? Or, God forbid, taking your prospect's word for it?! We use a Yahtzee inspired system we call "The Rose Close."
Why Yahtzee? Its all about odds. Think about it, the odds of rolling all five dice the same number are: 1 in 7776. Try to get four and your odds are 1 in 1296. Score three out of the five on your first roll? Your odds of getting Yahtzee go to 1 in 36!
Prospects can't really make six different decisions but closing them has math similar to Yahtzee. Boil it down and a prospect could say "yes" or "no" to your product. So, if you have one person making a decision, your chance of close is 50% right out of the gate--it's that simple.
But what happens if you add another person to influence the buying decision? 25% chance of close. (.5 x .5 =.25). Make it four influences who can each say "yes or no" and you are down to a paltry 6.25% chance of close. Five? Just a 3.125 % chance of closing. So with math like that, why do salespeople use their gut when selling to one let alone multiple decision makers? And why do salespeople just assume their main contact will convince everyone else?
Wishful thinking! Just like a second grader! Just like me thinking my wife wouldn't scold me as I stumbled through the door chowing on the pizza! Second graders think things will happen just because they want them to. They wish upon a star. So do salespeople when they evaluate sales.
The good news? You can control the odds, magically fix those "dice", just by:
1) Knowing how many people really influence the buying decision (are you really sure?)
2) Knowing what will make each of them say "YES!"
3) Making darn sure they do. If you can't get to them yourself, then you need to make sure your main contact is coached and questioned to remove any doubt from "Yeses" you get.
4) Pray for that final roll to end up a "YES!"
Wait a second? If you check off all the people influencing the deal as a "Yes" its a done deal right? Really? What about the legal team? What if something changes between the attorney approval and the ink on paper? You better take those into account, too. As a result, the highest you should ever rank the chance of a deal happening is 50%.
Three shots later as Matt and I waited for his wife to pick us up from The Olde Schoolhouse. We unfortunately knew the chances of "hearing it" was 100%.
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